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Barclays cuts FY 2021-22 growth forecast for India by 80 bps to 9.2%

Barclays cut its full-year 2021-22 economic growth forecast for India by 80 basis points to 9.2%. The toll from stringent lockdowns imposed to curb rising COVID-19 infections appeared to be bigger than its earlier expectation.

The devastating second wave of coronavirus infections has forced nearly two-thirds of the country to introduce tough curbs. This slows the economic activity and prompting a host of major banks and ratings agencies to cut their economic forecasts. Barclays said in a note that although India’s second wave in Covid has started to recede, the related economic costs have been larger. This owes to the more stringent lockdowns implemented to contain the outbreak.

The brokerage cut its baseline full-year 2021-22 gross domestic product growth forecast. This lowers it to 9.2% year-on-year from 10% earlier and 11% before the outbreak of the second wave. Barclays warned that India’s slow vaccination drive might pose medium risks to economic growth. This is especially if the country experienced a third wave of this pandemic. GDP growth would be lowered by another 150 basis points in such case. This may drag the year’s growth to 7.7%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor said at its last policy meeting that he did not expect any significant change to the RBI’s economic forecasts made in April. This is when it projected 2021/22 GDP would grow by 10.5%.

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Euro zone ministers expect inflation to slow in 2022

The acceleration of euro zone inflation, driven energy prices, is mostly temporary. Then the price growth will slow down again. The euro zone finance ministers agreed that, that too the next year as forecasted by the European Central Bank and the European Commission.

Paschal Donohoe, chaired the talks of the ministers in Luxembourg. In a news conference he said that there was also agreement that the inflation spike was not an argument against the transition to renewable sources of energy. This is under the EU’s ambitious plan of reducing CO2 emissions to zero by the year 2050.

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Under new rules, borrowing for investment sensible

British finance minister Rishi Sunak said that the government borrowing to fund investment was a sensible thing. This is to allow under new fiscal rules that he is likely to announce, unlike borrowing for day-to-day spending. He said that borrowing for capital investment that is going to drive up their growth is probably a sensible thing for them. And that too particularly in an environment of slightly lower interest rate. Sunak stated this in an event on the sidelines of the annual conference of Britain’s ruling Conservative Party. This event was organized by the Taxpayers’ Alliance advocacy group. Sunak stated in that event, that borrowing for more day-to-day spending is probably less something that you would want to have as part of your framework.

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IMF board to interview Georgieva-sources

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board is going to interview Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. This is regarding that; its reviews claims that she pressured World Bank staff to alter data to favor China in her previous role. Board members were initially expected to meet with Georgieva. But spent their time working on other regular business matters.

The board members spent hours for questioning lawyers from the WilmerHale firm. This is about their World Bank investigation report which alleged that Georgieva, as the bank‘s CEO applied undue pressure on staff, to alter data in the flagship “Doing Business” report to benefit China. Then, an IMF spokesperson said that the IMF board remains committed to a thorough, objective, and timely review of the matter. Georgieva has strongly denied the accusations.

The upcoming interviews could prove pivotal in either increasing support for Georgieva. This is with many IMF shareholders are keen to wrap up the board’s deliberations on the matter. The fund’s most influential member governments, including the top shareholder the United States, have withheld public judgment. The World Bank tasked WilmerHale with investigating the “Doing Business” data irregularities identified in 2020. The law firm’s report contends Georgieva. The former World Bank President Jim Yong Kim’s office pressured staff to manipulate data so that the China’s global ranking in the “Doing Business 2018” study of investment climates rose to 78th from 85th.

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