The Federal Reserve declared on Wednesday that it has achieved a significant win in the battle against rampant inflation, but the “won” would still necessitate more increases in its benchmark nightly interest rate, which must stay high at least until 2023.
After a year of larger rate increases, the U.S. central bank announced its most recent policy decision, downsizing to a quarter-percentage-point rise. In its statement, it ignored the extensive list of factors, from war to pandemic, that was raising prices in favour of stating merely that inflation has decreased.
The Fed is expected to halt soon and, in fact, drop rates later this year, but policymakers also predicted that ongoing rises in borrowing rates would be necessary. This promise was nevertheless vague and did not specify when the rate hikes may finish.
Nevertheless, investors got a dovish lead from comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who made repeated mention of the disinflationary mechanism that now appears to be in motion during a news conference.
As Powell spoke, equity markets increased and investors marginally increased their wagers on impending rate reduction.
However, Powell took care to tread a line that has become ever more delicate between the need to keep the general public and investors aware of the fact that rates of interest will continue to rise and the flow of data indicating inflation in a continuous drop.
Powell reiterated that rate cuts are not imminent.
After the Fed’s most recent two-day policy meeting, Powell told reporters that with goods prices falling, pandemic-related bottlenecks easing, and supply chains returning to normal, it can finally be declared that the disinflationary procedure has begun.
This is advantageous.
The preferred inflation measure of the Fed dropped to 5% in December from a peak of about 7% in June; it was still well beyond its 2% target but was steadily moving in the correct direction.
Powell noted that it is still in its early phases. Given that there is still a considerable distance to go, it is important to proceed with caution when making victory declarations and providing signs that the game has been won.
The Fed chairman believed significant portions of the economy, especially sizable portions of the service sector, were yet to experience a slowdown in inflation, even though a large number of job postings and continued robust wage growth indicated the labour market remained highly tight.
Powell noted that the labour market remains unbalanced and that Fed policymakers believe it is probable that the rate of unemployment will need to increase from its current modest level of 3.5% in order for inflation to return to the 2% target.
After a year in which costs accelerated much more quickly than anticipated, the Fed’s assertion on Wednesday was its first explicit recognition of slowing inflation.
To keep pace with the outbreak of skyrocketing inflation, the Fed had to quickly raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point and half a point.
The pandemic and other factors that the Fed has claimed over the last year were raising prices were either completely left out of the statement or, in the case of the crisis in Ukraine, were simply mentioned as a cause of global anxiety rather than inflation.
The Fed has increased interest rates by a total of 4.5 percentage points since March.
As a result, the policy rate is now the highest it has been since 2007. The cost of consumer borrowing, including home mortgages and auto loans, reflects this.
An allusion to the “pace” of future increases was dropped in favour of a reference to the “extent” of rate changes, and the Fed statement stated that any future rate hikes would be made in quarter-percentage-point increments.
The Federal Reserve hopes to keep pushing inflation down without starting a severe recession or significantly raising the unemployment rate.
In its annual review of its operating principles, the Fed did not release any fresh economic forecasts from its officials on Wednesday, but it did reiterate its commitment to its aim of 2% average inflation.
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